Afghan National Army soldiers fire artillery during a military training on March 5, 2013. (Reuters Photo/Parwiz).
As 2014 inches closer, the future of Afghanistan has become the center of many debates. An 11 year war has furthered instability, and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has been largely unsuccessful in preparing Afghans to maintain the current security structures which are in place today.
While everyone, including Americans, are ready to end the war, the withdrawal of US troops will no doubt create a security vacuum. Thus, we must ask ourselves: What is the potential for another deadly civil war or Taliban takeover in Afghanistan?
Earlier this year, the NATO-led ISAF had suggested that 2012 had been met with a 7 percent decrease in Taliban attacks throughout Afghanistan. However, they have since retracted these statements and have suggested that there has been neither a decrease nor increase in violent attacks.
With the Taliban maintaining a strong presence, particularly in the southern regions, and continuing to increase their efforts to regain control, Afghanistan has been painted with a bleak future.
The high likelihood of civil war in Afghanistan has rooted itself in the many problems the country has experienced over decades of war. More recent challenges include Afghanistan’s inability to train a military and police force void of ethnic tensions, putting an end to the destabilizing corruption running rampant throughout the government, and keeping the Taliban at bay.
Throughout the US occupation of Afghanistan, the Taliban has been successful in maintaining a strong presence with the help of Al Qaeda supported groups, particularly those coming out of Pakistan. Many Afghans fear that once the troops leave, the Taliban will retake Afghanistan, escalating the fears for many of the minority groups in the country, including women.
Prominent political officials in Afghanistan have already voiced their concerns over a “zero option” or full removal of US troops, saying that Afghanistan does not have the military capacity to hold off ensuing Taliban violence or a civil war.
As peace talks have been underway between the Afghan government and the Taliban, several minority groups have already stated their opposition to the talks. The northern groups and former members of the Northern Alliance, fear the outcome if the Taliban is represented as a member of government.
Prior to 9/11 the Taliban took to the offensive against minority groups in Afghanistan with targeted attacks against the Hazaras, and the focus by ISAF to curb ethnic tensions has been minute.
In addition to the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) being ill-equipped, there have been a surprising number of Afghan-on-Afghan attacks. Though the US has poured billions into the country, money isn’t going to fix the deep-rooted factional and ethnic differences that have shaped the nature of previous conflicts in Afghanistan. If the security forces cannot sort out ethnic differences between themselves, they cannot be expected to solve ethnic disputes within the country.
The corruption within the Karzai administration also greatly compromises the little stability Afghanistan has. With poor governance and economic performance, Afghans are less likely to stand behind the administration who has underperformed.
In a recent Gallup poll, 71 percent of Afghans consider themselves still struggling, and on average, only 29 percent are satisfied with their standard of living.
However, Hamid Karzai has said that he will not run again as president in 2014, so another looming uncertainty is what will transpire with the upcoming elections, and whether or not there will be a power vacuum.
The amount of corruption and ethnic divisions that drive a wedge between a peacefully coexisting Afghanistan supplies the Taliban with an opportunity to seize control of the government as they had done during the first civil war. This is not to suggest that the US has done an immaculate job during their 11 years occupying Afghanistan, but the removal of US troops will likely engender a security vacuum; as to who will fill this void, it can only be speculated.
There appears to be few solutions to resolving the many issues that are deeply embedded in Afghanistan. In displays of optimism, Afghans have proven to be incredibly resilient, and the majority’s desire to see their country successfully sustain itself might overcome the possibility of civil war. But if fighting remains unabated and the Taliban regains control, the entire country, including minorities and women, will have a lot to lose.
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